Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon where people perceive events as having been more predictable after they have occurred.

Hindsight bias is the tendency to view past events as having been more predictable after they have already occurred. This cognitive distortion often leads individuals to believe that they could have foreseen the outcome all along, even though it was not apparent at the time. For example, an individual might look back on a personal decision, such as choosing a particular career path or making a significant investment, and feel a sense of regret by thinking, "I should have known that this would turn out poorly."

This feeling of regret is deeply influenced by hindsight bias. Once the negative outcome is known, it can seem as though the signs were clear and that the person should have been able to anticipate the result; however, at the time of the decision, the same individual may not have had access to the information or insights that make the outcome seem obvious in retrospect.

This bias can distort their perception of past events, leading them to overestimate their ability to predict outcomes and to unfairly judge their previous decisions as flawed or misguided.